November oil shortage at 1.17 million barrels per day; January natural gas hits another all time low

oil prices rose for the 5th time in 6 weeks to close at a three month high this week, as renewed hopes for a US-China trade deal powered a late week rally….after rising 7.3%, or more than $4 to $59.20 a barrel after OPEC and other oil producers agreed to deeper output cuts last week, oil traders took some profits on Monday ahead of Trump’s China tariff deadline and the price of the benchmark US crude for January delivery slipped 18 cents to settle at $59.02 per barrel after Chinese data showed their overall exports of goods and services shrank for a fourth straight month, highlighting the economic impact of the ongoing trade war…oil prices slid again early on Tuesday on concerns over the shrinking global demand outlook, but turned higher in the afternoon to settle 22 cents higher at $59.24 per barrel, as OPEC’s deal with other producers to deepen output cuts continued to provide a floor for prices…however, oil prices fell early on Wednesday after industry data showed a surprise build in US crude oil inventory and then continued downward to close 48 cents lower at $58.76 per barrel after the EIA confirmed an inventory increase, along with large builds in product supplies…however, oil prices steadied on Thursday as the market mood switched back to relief, after OPEC forecast a supply deficit next year, even before their cuts kick in, with US crude rising 42 cents to settle at $59.18 a barrel, buoyed by reports of progress on the U.S.-China trade front and optimism after US & European central banks signaled a willingness to keep interest rates low and maintain economic stimulus for the foreseeable future….signs of further progress on US-China trade and a big conservative victory in UK elections then powered oil prices higher on Friday, as US crude rose 89 cents to finish the week with a 1.5% gain at $60.07 a barrel, two days short of a three month high

natural gas prices, meanwhile, finished lower after the current contract ​price ​hit another all time low on Monday…after finishing at $2.334 per mmBTU last week, 2.3% higher than it’s all time low of $2.281 per mmBTU of the previous Friday, the price of natural gas for January delivery gapped lower on Sunday evening and fell to as low as $2.158 before rebounding to finish at $2.232 per mmBTU, as last week’s forecast for an outbreak of cold gave way to a forecast of milder weather for ​a broad area of ​the nation’s midsection heading into Christmas week…prices rebounded a bit on Tuesday, rising 3.2 cents, but fell back 2.1 cents again on Wednesday…prices then recovered 8.5 cents on Thursday after the natural gas storage report revealed a larger than average withdrawal from inventories, but fell back 3.2 cents on Friday to end the week at $2.296 per mmBTU, down 1.6% from the prior week’s close..

the natural gas storage report for the week ending December 6th from the EIA indicated that the quantity of natural gas held in storage in the US decreased by 73 billion cubic feet to 3,518 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our gas supplies 593 billion cubic feet, or 20.3% higher than the 2,925 billion cubic feet that were in storage on December 6th of last year, but still 14 billion cubic feet, or 0.4% below the five-year average of 3,532 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been in storage as of the 6th of December in recent years….the 73 billion cubic feet that were withdrawn from US natural gas storage this week was near the average forecast of a 74 billion cubic feet withdrawal by analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts, but was above the average 68 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been pulled from natural gas storage during the first week of December over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending December 6th indicated that because of a big increase in our oil imports and a modest pullback the amount of oil being used by our refineries, we managed to end up with surplus oil to add to our stored commercial supplies for the tenth time in the past thirteen weeks…our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 899,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,887,000 barrels per day, after fa​lli​ng by an average of 201,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 265,000 barrels per day to an average of 3,400,000 barrels per day during the week, which meant that our effective trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 3,487,000 barrels of per day during the week ending December 6th, 634,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week…over the same period, the production of crude oil from US wells reportedly fell by 100,000 barrels per day to 12,800,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our trade in oil and from well production totaled an average of 16,287,000 barrels per day during this reporting week..

meanwhile, US oil refineries were reportedly processing 16,597,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 6th, 201,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil they used during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA reported that a net average of 90,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US….hence, this week’s crude oil figures from the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports and from oilfield production was 399,000 barrels per day less than what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week….to account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA inserted a (+399,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and the consumption of it balance out, essentially a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting an error or errors of that magnitude in the oil supply & demand figures we just transcribed….(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)…. 

further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to an average of 6,259,000 barrels per day last week, still 17.4% less than the 7,582,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year….the 90,000 barrel per day net addition our total crude inventories ​was due to a 118,000 barrel per day addition to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, which was slightly offset by a withdrawal of 28,000 barrels per day from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve……this week’s crude oil production was reported to be 100,000 barrels per day lower at 12,800,000 barrels per day because the rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was ​1​00,000 barrels per day lower at 12,300,000 barrels per day, while a 8,000 barrel per day decrease to 480,000 barrels per day in Alaska’s oil production was not large enough to impact the final rounded total…last year’s US crude oil production for the week ending December 7th was rounded to 11,600,000 barrels per day, so this reporting week’s rounded oil production figure was 10.3% above that of a year ago, and 51.9% more than the interim low of 8,428,000 barrels per day that US oil production fell to during the last week of June of 2016…   

meanwhile, US oil refineries were operating at 90.6% of their capacity in using 16,597,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 6th, down from 91.9% of capacity the prior week, and well below the ​recent normal for the first week of December…as a result, the 16,597,000 barrels per day of oil that were refined this week was 4.8% below the 17,436,000 barrels of crude per day that were being processed during the week ending December 7th, 2018, when US refineries were operating at 95.1% of capacity….

with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined, gasoline output from our refineries was ​also lower, decreasing by 188,000 barrels per day to 9,753,000 barrels per day during the week ending December 6th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 114,000 barrels per day the prior week….and with this week’s decrease in gasoline output, our gasoline production was 6.7% lower than the 10,457,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the same week of last year….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) fell by 35,000 barrels per day to 5,228,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 188,000 barrels per day over the prior week…likewise, after this week’s decrease in distillates output, our distillates’ production for the week was 5.7% below the 5,545,000 barrels of distillates per day that were being produced during the week ending December 7th, 2018….

however, even with the decrease in our gasoline production, our supply of gasoline in storage at the end of the week increased for the 5th time in eleven weeks and for the 11th time in 25 weeks, rising by 5,405,000 barrels to 234,768,000 barrels during the week to December 6th, after our gasoline supplies had increased by 3,385,000 barrels over the prior week….our gasoline supplies increased by more this week because our imports of gasoline rose by 180,000 barrels per day to 579,000 barrels per day while our exports of gasoline rose by 43,000 barrels per day to 916,000 barrels per day, and because the amount of gasoline supplied to US markets decreased by 150,000 barrels per day to 8,882,000 barrels per day….after this week’s increase, our gasoline supplies were 2.8% higher than last December 7th’s inventory level of 228,337,000 barrels, while ​they rose to roughly 5% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

likewise, even with the decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the 3rd time in 12 weeks and for 13th time in the past 37 weeks, increasing by 4,118,000 barrels to 123,587,000 barrels during the week ending December 6th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 3,063,000 barrels over the prior week…our distillates supplies rose more this week because our exports of distillates fell by 341,000 barrels per day to 1,071,000 barrels per day while our imports of distillates rose by 19,000 barrels per day to 162,000 barrels per day, while the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 175,000 barrels per day to 3,731,000 barrels per day….but even after this week’s inventory increase, our distillate supplies were still 0.4% lower than the 124,137,000 barrels of distillates that we had stored on December 7th, 2018, even as they rose to 9% below the five year average of distillates stocks for this time of the year…

finally, this week’s big jump in oil imports, combined with the slump in​ our​ oil refining, meant our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the thirteenth time in twenty-six weeks and for the twenty-eighth time in 46 weeks, increasing by 822,000 barrels, from 447,096,000 barrels on November 29th to 447,918,000 barrels on December 6th…after that ​relatively ​small increase, our crude oil inventories remained roughly 3% above the five-year average of crude oil supplies for this time of year, and 34% higher than the prior 5 year (2009 – 2013) average of crude oil stocks at the end of November, with the disparity between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories first rose above 400 million barrels…since our crude oil inventories had generally been rising over this year up until July, after generally falling until then through most of the prior year and a half, our oil supplies as of December 6th were still 1.3% above the 441,954,000 barrels of oil we had stored on December 7th of 2018, and 1.1% above the 442,986,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on December 8th of 2017, but at the same time were 7.3% below the 483,193,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on December 9th of 2016…     

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report

Wednesday of this past week saw the release of OPEC’s December Oil Market Report, which covers OPEC & global oil data for November, and hence it gives us a snapshot of ​the ​global oil supply & demand ​situation just before the December 6th OPEC meeting, when total production cuts of up to 2.1 million barrels per day, or more than 2% of global supply, were announced…but as we’ll see, this report shows there was already a shortfall of more than 1% in the amount of oil produced globally in November, even ​though it was less than the large shortfalls seen in October and ​during this summer…

the first table from this monthly report that we’ll look at is from the page numbered 58 of that report (pdf page 70), and it shows oil production in thousands of barrels per day for each of the current OPEC members over the recent years, quarters and months, as the column headings indicate…for all their official production measurements, OPEC uses an average of estimates from six “secondary sources”, namely the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil-pricing agencies Platts and Argus, ‎the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the oil consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) and the industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, as a means of impartially adjudicating whether their output quotas and production cuts are being met, to thus avert any potential disputes that could arise if each member reported their own figures…

November 2019 OPEC crude output via secondary sources

as we can see from the above table of oil production data, OPEC’s oil output fell by 193,000 barrels per day to 29,551,000 barrels per day in November, from their revised October production total of 29,744,000 barrels per day…however that October output figure was originally reported as 29,650,000 barrels per day, which means that OPEC’s October production was revised 94,000 barrels per day higher, and hence November’s production was, in effect, a 287,000 barrel per day decrease from the previously reported OPEC production figures (for your reference, here is the table of the official October OPEC output figures as reported a month ago, before this month’s revisions)…

​from this table, ​we can also see that a 151,000 barrel per day decrease in production by the Saudis, a 75,000 barrel per day decrease in production by Angola, a 59,000 barrel per day decrease in production by Iraq, and a 45,000 barrel per day decrease in production by Iran were the major reasons for OPEC’s November output drop, more than offsetting increases of 73,000 barrels per day in output from Ecuador and 58,000 barrels per day in output from Kuwait, while the oil output from most other OPEC members was comparatively little changed….we should also note that the 73,000 barrels per day increase in Ecuador’s production was only a partial recovery of their October output decrease, when violent protests over an end to fuel subsidies reduced their production…

with this report, the Saudi’s production, and production from most other OPEC members other than Iraq and Nigeria, remains below the output allocation as originally determined for each OPEC member after their December 7th, 2018 meeting, when OPEC agreed to cut 800,000 barrels per day as part of a 1.2 million barrel per day cut agreed to with Russia and other oil producers, and which were extended at their July 1st meeting a little over five months ago…this can be seen in the table of OPEC production allocations we’ve included below:

February 6 2019 Platts on OPEC allocations

in addition to those cuts, at their meeting with other oil producers on December 6th of this year, OPEC announced additional production cuts of 500,000 barrels per day through to March 2020 on top of those figures, a breakdown of which we have in a table from OPEC below:

OPEC additional supply cuts as of December 2019

the above table was posted on OPEC’s website after their December 6th meeting, and it shows the additional production cuts each of the OPEC members and their allies among other producers are expected to make over the 3 month​ period​ beginning January…as you see, the heaviest cuts fall on the core OPEC members of Saudi Arabia. the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, while embargoed Iran and Venezuela remain exempt…obviously, the table would be more meaningful if their current production, or even their expected end production, were included, but i’ve been unable to find a table with those important details, so we’ll just have to make do switching back and forth between the two tables we have to see how each member is impacted….in addition to those cuts that came out of the OPEC meeting, the Saudis voluntarily pledged to cut an additional 400,000 barrels a day than mandated by the December 6th agreement, bringing the total cut for the group to 2.1 million barrels a day, or more than 2% of global output….

the next graphic from the report that we’ll include shows us both OPEC and world oil production monthly on the same graph, over the period from December 2017 to November 2019, and it comes from page 59 (pdf page 71) of the December OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report….on this graph, the cerulean blue bars represent OPEC oil production in millions of barrels per day as shown on the left scale, while the purple graph represents global oil production in millions of barrels per day, with the metrics for global output shown on the right scale…  

November 2019 OPEC report global oil supply

even after the 193,000 barrel per day decrease in OPEC’s production from what they produced a month ago, OPEC’s preliminary estimate indicates that total global oil production increased by a rounded 0.41 million barrels per day to 99.78 million barrels per day in November, and that reported increase came after October’s total global output figure was revised up by 30,000 barrels per day from the 97.34 million barrels per day of global oil output that was reported a month ago, as non-OPEC oil production rose by a rounded 610,000 barrels per day in November after that revision, with higher oil production from the US, Canada, Norway, the UK, Russia, and Azerbaijan the major ​​reasons for the non-OPEC output increase in November…despite that increase in November ‘s output, the 99.78 million barrels of oil per day produced globally in November were still 0.86 million barrels per day, or 0.85% lower than the 100.64 million barrels of oil per day that were being produced globally in November a year ago (see the December 2018 OPEC report (online pdf) for the originally reported October 2018 details)…with this month’s decrease in OPEC’s output, their November oil production of 29,551,000 barrels per day fell to 29.6% of what was produced globally during the month, down from the 29.9% share ​OPEC contributed in October….OPEC’s November 2018 production was reported at 32,965,000 barrels per day, which means that the 13 OPEC members who were part of OPEC last year, excluding Qatar from last year’s total and new member Congo from this year’s, produced 3,119,000 fewer barrels per day of oil than what they produced a year ago, when they accounted for 32.8% of global output, with a 1,166,000 barrel per day decrease in output from Saudi Arabia, a 852,000 barrel per day drop in the output from Iran, and a 440,000 barrel per day decrease in the output from Venezuela from that time more than offsetting the ​much ​small​er​ year over year production increases of 144,000 barrels per day by the United Arab Emirates, 84,000 barrels per day by Libya, and 62,000 barrels per day by Nigeria… 

even with the 410,000 barrels per day increase in global oil output that was seen during November, there was a substantial shortfall in the amount of oil being produced globally during the month, as this next table from the OPEC report will show us…     

November 2019 OPEC report global oil demand

the table above came from page 31 of the December OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (pdf page 43), and it shows regional and total oil demand in millions of barrels per day for 2018 in the first column, and OPEC’s estimate of oil demand by region and globally quarterly over 2019 over the rest of the table…on the “Total world” line in the fifth column, we’ve circled in blue the figure that’s relevant for November, which is their estimate of global oil demand during the fourth quarter of 2019…

OPEC has estimated that during the 4th quarter of this year, all oil consuming regions of the globe ​are using 100.95 million barrels of oil per day, which is the same as they reported for the 4th quarter a month ago….meanwhile, as OPEC showed us in the oil supply section of this report and the summary supply graph above, OPEC and the rest of the world’s oil producers were only producing 99.78 million barrels per day during November, which means that there was a shortage of around 1,170,000 barrels per day in global oil production when compared to the demand estimated for the month… 

meanwhile, the upward revision of 30,000 barrels per day to September’s global output that’s implied in this report means that the 1,610,000 barrels per day  shortfall that we had originally figured for October based on last month’s figures would now have to be revised to a deficit of 1,580,000 barrels per day…however, since there are no revisions to previous months, that means the supply deficit and surplus figures that we had figured last month will not be changed from what we had logged then…those include a deficit of 3,030,000 barrels per day for September (following the September 14th drone attack on Saudi oil infrastructure), a 1,670,000 barrels per day shortfall in August, and a 2,290,000 barrels per day shortfall in July..

looking ahead, we expect that OPEC and other oil producers will cut production come January as promised, since most of the countries committed to the largest cuts normally produce less oil in winter anyhow​,​ because their domestic demand is lower​ at that time​….while the November shortfall of 1.17 million barrels per day would lead one to believe that the oil shortage would only get worse with further cuts, that does not appear to be the case, because global wintertime demand is typically much lower than the rest of the year, which we can see in the following estimates of global oil demand for 2020:

November 2019 OPEC report global oil demand for 2020

the table above came from page 32 of the December OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (pdf page 44), and like the prior table, it shows regional and total oil demand in millions of barrels per day for 2019 in the first column, and OPEC’s estimate of oil demand by region and globally quarterly over 2020 over the rest of the table…on the “Total world” line in the second column, we’ve circled in green the figure that’s relevant to OPEC’s new cuts, which is their estimate of global oil demand during the first quarter of 2020…

as you can see, OPEC is estimating that during the 1st quarter of next year, all oil consuming regions of the globe will be using 99.7​8 million barrels of oil per day, which quite coincidentally is the same amount of oil produced globally in November…hence, if November’s production from non-OPEC aligned producers merely holds steady through the first quarter, the global oil shortage will be limited to just what OPEC ​and their allies ​cut…but what’s more likely is that the non-OPEC producers will continue to increase their production to replace what production OPEC is foregoing…since non-OPEC production increased by 730,000 barrels per day in October, and ​by ​610,000 barrels per day in November, that suggests that if the non-OPEC production increases continue at their current pace, the global supply deficit will turn to a surplus in January, and become larger each month as the ​year progresses…

This Week’s Rig Count

the US rig count was unchanged over the week ending December 13th, after falling 15 out of the 16 prior weeks, and remains down by 26.2% since the end of last year….Baker Hughes reported that the total count of rotary rigs running in the US was unchanged at a 32 month low of 799 rigs this past week, which was also down by 272 rigs from the 1071 rigs that were in use as of the December 14th report of 2018, and 1130 fewer rigs than the shale era high of 1929 drilling rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014, the week before OPEC began their attempt to flood the global oil market…

the number of rigs drilling for oil increased by 4 rigs to 667 oil rigs this week, which was still 206 fewer oil rigs than were running a year ago, and well below the recent high of 1609 rigs that were drilling for oil on October 10th, 2014…at the same time, the number of drilling rigs targeting natural gas bearing formations decreased by 4 rigs to 129 natural gas rigs, matching the 34 month low of three weeks ago, down by 69 gas rigs from the 198 natural gas rigs that were drilling a year ago, and way down from the modern era high of 1,606 rigs targeting natural gas that were deployed on September 7th, 2008…in addition to those rigs drilling for oil & gas, three rigs classified as ‘miscellaneous’ continued to drill this week; one on the big island of Hawaii, one in Washoe County, Nevada, and one in Lake County, California, in contrast to a year ago, when there were no such “miscellaneous” rigs deployed..

offshore drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico increased by one rig to 23 rigs this week, with the addition of a new rig in Texas waters…​as a result, the 22 rigs that are drilling in Louisiana waters and ​the ​one ​thjat ​was drilling offshore from Texas this week exactly matches the Gulf rig count of a year ago, when 22 rigs were drilling offshore from Louisiana waters and one rig was drilling in Texas waters…since there are no rigs deployed off US shores elsewhere, nor were there a year ago, the Gulf of Mexico count for both years is equal to the national total in both cases..

the count of active horizontal drilling rigs was down by 2 rigs to 693 horizontal rigs this week, which was the least horizontal rigs deployed since March 31st 2017 and hence is a new 32 month low for horizontal drilling…it was also 234 fewer horizontal rigs than the 927 horizontal rigs that were in use in the US on December 14th of last year, and also well down from the record of 1372 horizontal rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014….meanwhile, the directional rig count was unchanged at 52 directional rigs this week, and those were down by 21 from the 73 directional rigs that were operating during the same week of last year….on the other hand, the vertical rig count was up by 2 to 54 vertical rigs this week, but those were still down by 17 from the 71 vertical rigs that were in use on December 14th of 2018…

the details on this week’s changes in drilling activity by state and by major shale basin are shown in our screenshot below of that part of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes that gives us those changes…the first table below shows weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major oil & gas producing states, and the table below that shows the weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major US geological oil and gas basins…in both tables, the first column shows the active rig count as of December 13th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (December 6th) and this week’s (December 13th) count, the third column shows last week’s December 6th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting week a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 14th of December, 2018…  

December 13 2019 rig count summary

looking at this week’s table, the obvious first question one would have is how could oil rigs be up four and natural gas rigs be down 4 when the biggest increase was the 4 natural gas rigs that were added in the Marcellus shale, which included 3 new natural gas rigs in West Virginia and one ​new ​gas rig in Pennsylvania?…to begin with, ​the 2 rig reduction in ​Ohio’s Utica shale count masks some of th​e change, as two oil targeting rigs were added in the Utica in the basin’s first oil drilling since September 2018…drilling rigs in both Belmont and Jefferson counties, normally gas producing areas, were targeting oil in the Utica shale at a depth exceeding 15,000 feet…meanwhile, 4 natural gas rigs were pulled out of the Utica at the same time…other natural gas rigs were also removed from Texas’s Barnett shale, near Ft Worth, and ​from ​the Haynesville, although it’s not clear exactly​ ​where, since northern Louisiana saw a rig increase and the rig count in the adjacent Texas Oil District 6 was unchanged….meanwhile, the last two natural gas rigs shut down this week were pulled from basins not tracked separately by Baker Hughes and hence they don’t show up in the basin table above…

meanwhile, even though the Permian basin of western Texas and New Mexico appears to have no change, it had quite a bit of action; for starters, four rigs were added in Texas Oil District 8, or the core Permian Delaware, and another rig began operating in Texas Oil District 8A, or from the northern Permian Midland…at the same time, three rigs were pulled out of Texas Oil District 7C, or the southern part of the Permian Midland, and another Permian rig was pulled out of the western Permian Delaware in New Mexico…the last Permian basin rig removal could have been the rig removed from Texas Oil District 7B, which is usually thought of as east of the main Permian play, or it could have also been pulled from New Mexico, if another rig had been started in another part of the state at the same time; not easy to tell, since we aren’t provided with a breakout on New Mexico drilling…

we should also note that another rig was added in Mississippi this week, and the​ state now ha​s 5 rigs operating…that now puts their count above the 4 rigs that were operating in Mississippi a year ago, even as the rig count in that state has been quite volatile, ranging from 1 to 6 rigs over the past year…at the same time, drilling also began in Alabama this week, the first activity in that state in 2 months, and also up from no​ rigs in the same week of a year ago..

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