Talking about Albert Edwards: Global economy to roll over in six to nine months’ time; bearish for shares – Credit

 

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Albert Edwards: Global economy to roll over in six to nine months’ time; bearish for shares – Credit

SocGen’s Albert Edwards was out with a note today which is in line with my calls for a marked slowing of the economy toward the end of this year. He indicates that the rate of change in leading indicators in the real economy and in markets is rolling over right now. Edwards writes that this suggests softness in six-to-nine months (hat tip Scott). I like his analysis because it depends on first derivatives or the rate of change rather than absolute levels which are misleading at turning points (see Has the increase in U.S. jobless claims peaked? from March 2009 for an example of first derivatives presaging the end of recession).  Remember, a recession begins from a cyclical peak in economic activity. So, the economy is rising until that point. Analysts looking at absolute levels only will miss the slowing in the rate of change.

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